Enter the deal terms and get the gross spread, annualized yield, market-implied probability of closing and expected value. Dividends and the withholding tax on them are handled, because most calculators quietly get that part wrong.
Tip: leave your own probability blank and the expected value uses the market-implied number, where it equals the current price by definition. Enter your own estimate to see your edge.
For research and illustration. Not investment advice. Figures depend entirely on the inputs you provide.
Offer price plus any dividend you still collect before settlement, minus the withholding tax charged on that dividend. Taxing the offer price instead of the dividend, a common spreadsheet error, understates the upside.
The net upside over the current market price. It is the raw return if the deal closes at terms and you bought today.
The gross spread scaled to a full year using the days to expected close. It is what makes a tight spread on a fast deal comparable to a wide spread on a slow one.
Rearranged from the current price: (current minus downside) divided by (upside minus downside). It is the probability of closing that today's price implies, assuming your downside estimate is right.
The probability-weighted average of the upside and downside outcomes. Divided by the current price it gives the expected-value ratio, where anything above 1.00 is a positive-expected-value entry at today's price.
The gross spread is the net upside per share divided by the current market price. The net upside is the offer price plus any dividend collected before settlement, less the withholding tax on that dividend. Annualizing it means multiplying by 365 divided by the days to expected close.
Yes, if the holder collects it before settlement it adds to the upside, but only net of the withholding tax charged on the dividend. Taxing the whole offer price instead of just the dividend is a frequent error that understates the real spread.
It is the probability of completion that the current price implies, computed as (current minus downside) divided by (upside minus downside). If your own probability estimate is higher than the implied one, the spread is compensating you more than the market thinks it should.
Yes. The calculator runs the same assessment formulas that FPM computes server-side on every deal, so what you see here is a small slice of the product working on one situation.
The calculator does the math for a single situation. FPM keeps every live deal as a structured record with this assessment computed automatically, the regulatory path per jurisdiction, and a full audit trail.